Dhammaan indhuhu waxay hayaan Taiwan iyadoo jasiiraddan iskeed isku maamusha ayna ku nool yihiin 23 milyan oo qof ay maanta u dareereen codbixin.
Ilaa 19.5 milyan oo reer Taiwan ah ayaa codkooda u dhiibanaya si ay u doortaan madaxweyne cusub iyo baarlamaan.
Saddex nin ayaa u tartamaya inay noqdaan hoggaamiyaha xiga ee jasiiraddan is maamusha – William Lai Ching-te oo ka tirsan Xisbiga Horumarka Dimuqraaddiga (DPP), Hou Yu-ih oo ka tirsan xisbiga mucaaradka ugu weyn ee Kuomintang (KMT) iyo Ko Wen-je oo ka tirsan Xisbiga Dadka Taiwan (TPP).
Cid kastoo madaxweynenimo loo doorto waxay qaabeyn doontaa xiriirka Beijing iyo Washington labadaba – Taiwan ayaa udub-dhexaad u ah hardankooda quwadda ee gobolka.
Sidoo kale saameyn muhiim ah ayay ku yeelan doontaa deriska jasiiradda iyo sidoo kale xulafada sida Japan oo kasoo horjeedda dhaqdhaqaaqyada gurracan ee Beijing ee Badda South China.
Arrinka Shiinaha
Shiinuhu wuxuu ka mid yahay walaacyada ugu sarreeya doorashadan, marka la eego Ciidamada Xoreynta Dadka ee cadaadis saarayay jasiiradda sanadkii lasoo dhaafay iyadoo dhacdooyin dhowr ahna ay dhaceen. Beijing ayaana caddeysay musharraxa madaxtinnimo ee ay kasoo – waa Mr Lai oo isku dayaya inuu xisbigiisa siiyo muddo-xileedkii saddexaad oo aan caadi ahayn.
Jimcihii, ciidamada PLA ayaa sheegay inay “cagta marin doonaan” “abaabul” walba oo madax-bannaanida Taiwan ah isla markaana ay “mar walba heegan ku jiri doonaan”. Xafiiska Arrimaha Taiwan ee Shiinaha ayaa sidoo kale uga digay codbixiyeyaasha inay sameeyaan “xulashada saxda ah”, isagoo sheegay in Mr Lai uu sii ballaarin doono howlaha ka go’itaanka haddii la doorto.
“[Isagu] wuu sii wadi doonaa inuu raaco waddada xun ee keenidda ‘madax-bannaani’ wuuna… kasii dheereyn doonaa Taiwan nabadda iyo baraaraha, wuxuuna xitaa usii dhoweyn doonaa dagaal iyo hoos u dhac,” ayuu xafiisku ku yiri war-saxaafadeed xambaarsanaa digniinno kaasoo soo baxay horraantii toddobaadkan.
Beijing ayaa muddo dheer sheeganeysay jasiiradda, balse xiriirka kala dhaxeeya ayaa sii xumaaday gaar ahaan sanadihii lasoo dhaafay muddada Madaxweyne Tsai Ing-wen iyo xisbiga DPP.
Maqaamkeeda taxadarku ku dheehan yahay balse sidoo kale adag ee geyiga jasiiradda ayaa u horseeday Shiinaha inuu joojiyo xiriir rasmi ah oo uu la yeesho Taiwan – Beijing ayaa sheegtay in tani ay sabab u ahayd diidmada Taiwan ee ah inay aqbasho qodobka Hal Shiinaha, oo ah rumeynta in Taiwan ay qeyb aan laga hadli karin ka tahay Shiinaha maalin uunna lala mideyn doono.
Arrimaha ayaa kasii daray 2022, markaasoo Afhayeenkii Aqalka Mareykanka ee xilligaas Nancy Pelosi ay booqasho ku tagtay Taipei. Beijing oo careysan ayaa dhoollatusyo militari ka sameysay Taiwan Strait kaasoo matalayay in xayiraad ay qarka u saarantay jasiiradda. Dabayaaqadii sanadkaas, Mareykanka ayaa sheegay in Xi Jinping uu dardar geliyay muddada mideynta.
Xilligaas, Taiwan ayaa u dhowaatay Mareykanka, waxayna heshay balaayiin dollar oo ay hub cusub uga soo iibsatay Washington.
Beijing ayaa sii kordhin kartay cadaadiska militari ee Taiwan Strait. Waxay sidoo kale jari kartay xarkaha internet-ka amaba marinnada ay wax usoo maraan jasiiradaha Taiwan.
Madaxweynaha Shiinaha Xi Jinping iyo wasiirkiisa arrimaha dibadda Wang Yi ayaa dhowr jeer ka digay in militariga Shiinaha uu u diyaarsan yahay inuu Taiwan xoog kula wareego haddii laga fursan waayo. Balse khubarro badan ayaa aaminsan in suurtogalnimada ah dagaal dhab ah ay yar tahay, ugu yaraan haatan, marka la eego waxa ay ku qaadan karto Shiinaha oo dhaqaalihiisu uu hoos u dhac la daalaa dhacayo.
Shiinaha ka shishe
Xiisad walboo dhex marta Shiinaha iyo Taiwan ayaa khatar u ah inay isu rogto wax weyn oo aad halis u ah – Mareykanka ayaa ciidamo badeed ballaaran ku leh gobolka, halka Australia iyo Japan, sidoo kale, ay saldhigyo ku leeyihiin hareeraha jasiiradda.
Washington ayaa weli kala caddeyn nooca taageerada ay siin doonto Taiwan haddii uu Shiinuhu weerar soo qaado – mana cadda haddii Japan, oo martigelisa ciidamada ugu badan ee Mareykanka ka jooga gobolka, ay qudheeda dagaalka geli doonto.
Dadka oo cirka u gamaya nal iyagoo nabad u rajeynaya jasiiradda
Washington ayaa rajeyneysa suurtogalnimada ah in ku lug lahaanshaheeda ay iska caabbin doonto Shiinaha. Khubarro badan ayaana sheegaya in Beijing ay sidoo kale dooneyso inay ka fogaato dagaal, iyagoo farta ku fiiqay inay ka samri doonto “dib u midowgeeda nabadeed”.
Xakameynta waxyaabahan suurtogalnimada ah iyo xulafooyinka – iyo xiriirka Mareykanka oo muhiim ah, kaasoo aad isu beddeli doona haddii Donald Trump uu madaxtinnimada ku guuleysto – ayaa u yaalla madaxweynaha xiga ee Taiwan.
Mareykanka ayaa sheegay in guusha KMT ay kordhin doonto saameynta Shiinaha ee Taiwan. Balse falanqeeyeyaasha ayaa sheegaya in madaxtinnimada Lai ay sidoo kale walaca ku heyso Washington.
Haddii uu dhacdo, dagaal ka qarxa gudaha Taiwan wuxuu noqon doonaa mid khasaare badan dhaliya – khasaaraha bani’aadannimo iyo dimuqraaddiyadda jasiiraddaba.
Sidoo kale wuxuu burburin doonaa dhaqaalaha caalamka. Ku dhowaad kala bar kunteenarrada caalamka waxay sanad walba maraan Taiwan Strait, taasoo ka dhigeysa inay marin muhiim ah u tahay ganacsiga caalamka.
Sidoo kale cunaqabateyn la saaro Shiinaha wuxuu ka sii dari doonaa waxyeellada dhaqaalaha dunida.
Hagaajinta xiriirka Shiinaha, oo ah khatarta ugu weyn ee Taiwan balse sidoo kale ah saaxiibkeeda ganacsi ee ugu weyn, wuxuu ajande sare u yahay qof walboo xukumi doona jasiiradda. Sicir-bararka iyo shaqooyinka ayaa arrimaha ugu waaweyn ka ah doorashada.
Falanqeeyeyaasha ayaa rajeynaya dowlad kala qeybsan, iyadoo ay kala xukumi doonaan axsaab kala duwan.
